# Skilled trades shortage 2026: electricians, plumbers, HVAC, mechanics and welders

> Skilled trades shortage 2026: BLS openings for electricians, plumbers, HVAC, mechanics and welders, how owners keep people, and a new way to add crew pay.

Canonical: https://origindatapartners.com/physical-ai/skilled-trades-shortage
By: Origin Data Partners
Status: Published
Published: 2026-11-05
Updated: 2026-11-05
Sources checked: 2026-11-05

## Quick answer

The trades shortage is real and measurable. The BLS projects about 72,700 electrician openings a year, 66,200 for auto mechanics, 42,000 for plumbers, 40,600 for HVAC technicians and 40,300 for welders through 2035. ABC says construction must attract 349,000 net new workers in 2026, 83% of contractors with craft openings say they are as hard or harder to fill, and TechForce puts the technician gap at about 140,000 a year.

## Key points

- Most openings come from people retiring or leaving the trade, not just from growth, so the gap does not close when the economy cools.
- Owners compete on pay, training and schedules: 95% of contractors raised base pay last year, and apprentices who finish keep their jobs 93% of the time.
- A new lever is extra pay that does not add to payroll: sharing income from recording work with the crew.

## How bad is the skilled trades shortage in 2026?

The clearest measure is how many job openings each trade must fill every year. The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects these averages for 2025 to 2035. Many of the openings come from workers retiring or switching jobs, which is why even slow-growing trades such as welding still need tens of thousands of new people a year.

| Trade | Openings a year | Job growth 2025 to 2035 | Median pay (May 2025) | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Electricians | 72,700 | 9% | $63,190 | [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/construction-and-extraction/electricians.htm) |
| Automotive technicians and mechanics | 66,200 | 5% | $50,620 | [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/installation-maintenance-and-repair/automotive-service-technicians-and-mechanics.htm) |
| Plumbers, pipefitters and steamfitters | 42,000 | 7% | $63,800 | [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/construction-and-extraction/plumbers-pipefitters-and-steamfitters.htm) |
| HVAC mechanics and installers | 40,600 | 11% | $61,010 | [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/installation-maintenance-and-repair/heating-air-conditioning-and-refrigeration-mechanics-and-installers.htm) |
| Welders, cutters, solderers and brazers | 40,300 | 2% | $53,750 | [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/production/welders-cutters-solderers-and-brazers.htm) |


## What do trade groups say about the shortage?

Construction: [Associated Builders and Contractors](https://www.abc.org/News-Media/News-Releases/abc-construction-industry-must-attract-349000-workers-in-2026-despite-macroeconomic-headwinds) estimates the industry must attract 349,000 net new workers in 2026 and 456,000 in 2027. In the [AGC 2025 Workforce Survey](https://www.agc.org/sites/default/files/users/user21902/2025%20Workforce%20Survey%20Analysis_V2.pdf), mechanics were the hardest craft to hire (79% of firms that employ them), followed by iron workers, and electricians at 77%.

Mechanics and technicians: the [TechForce Foundation](https://www.repairerdrivennews.com/2026/06/08/techforce-more-than-73000-collision-techs-needed-by-2029-retention-partially-to-blame/) says the US is short roughly 140,000 skilled technicians a year across ten sectors including automotive, diesel, collision and HVAC. Welders: the [American Welding Society](https://www.ky3.com/2026/08/11/welding-workforce-shortage-industry-leaders-warn-growing-skills-gap/) projects a shortage of more than 300,000 welding professionals by 2029, and its [workforce data](https://www.weldingworkforcedata.com/) shows more than 157,000 welding professionals approaching retirement.

Farm work has its own gap: H-2A guest worker certifications reached 398,258 in fiscal 2025. See [robots in agriculture](https://origindatapartners.com/physical-ai/robots-in-agriculture) for what machines can and cannot cover there.


## Why is there a shortage of electricians, plumbers and mechanics?

Three things stack up. A large share of experienced tradespeople are near retirement. Training takes years: most electricians and plumbers learn through apprenticeships. And demand keeps rising, from housing repairs to data centers and power work.

Turnover makes it worse. TechForce found employers across its ten technician sectors hired 1.18 million technicians in 2025 and lost 1.14 million in the same year. The industry is running hard to stand still.


## What are owners doing to keep good tradespeople?

Survey data points to the same handful of moves. None is new; what has changed is how many owners are doing all of them at once.

- Pay: [AGC](https://www.agc.org/sites/default/files/users/user21902/2025%20Workforce%20Survey%20Analysis_V2.pdf) found 95% of construction firms raised base pay rates in the past year. ManpowerGroup found 25% of US employers are increasing wages to deal with talent shortages.
- Training: 42% of construction firms increased spending on training in the past 12 months, and upskilling current staff was the top response (27%) in [ManpowerGroup's 2026 US survey](https://www.staffingindustry.com/news/global-daily-news/69-of-us-employers-report-difficulty-finding-talent).
- Apprenticeships: the US Department of Labor's [apprenticeship.gov](https://www.apprenticeship.gov/) reports 93% employment retention for apprentices who complete their program.
- Schedules: 22% of US employers are offering more schedule flexibility, according to ManpowerGroup.
- Extra earnings that do not raise fixed costs, such as performance bonuses or, newer, a share of income from recording work (below).


## Can recording work become extra pay for your crew?

One new option is getting paid for footage of work your crew already does. Robot labs need first-person video of skilled hands at work, and Amelia Robotics pays businesses for approved recordings. Amelia pays the business once a month, and the owner decides how to share it. Its own example split is 50% to the worker, 10% to the team lead and 40% to the business, and you can set a different split for each team.

Illustrative example: a plumbing and HVAC shop with 5 technicians who each record 20 approved hours a week would earn about $4,000 a month at the typical rate (5 x 20 x 4 x $10). With the 50/10/40 split, the technicians share $2,000 (about $400 each), the lead gets $400 and the business keeps $1,600. Amelia's typical pay is $500 to $2,000 a month per recording employee, assuming 12.5 to 50 approved hours a week. Earnings vary, and your agreement and approved recordings decide actual pay.

It does not replace fair wages, but it is extra pay tied to work your people already do. See what counts for trades on our [plumbing, HVAC and electrical page](https://origindatapartners.com/physical-ai/plumbing-hvac-electrical).


## Next step

Read [how trade businesses get paid for recording work](https://origindatapartners.com/physical-ai) and use the calculator to see your crew's numbers.

Origin Data Partners is independent. We may be paid by our partner when a business we introduce is paid; it never comes out of your earnings. [How Origin is paid](https://origindatapartners.com/referral-disclosure).


## Questions and answers

### Is there a skilled trades shortage in 2026?

Yes. BLS projects about 72,700 electrician, 42,000 plumber, 40,600 HVAC and 40,300 welder openings a year through 2035, and 83% of contractors with craft openings say they are as hard or harder to fill than a year ago.

### Is there an electrician shortage?

Yes. BLS projects about 72,700 openings a year with 9% job growth from 2025 to 2035, and 77% of construction firms that employ electricians say they are hard to find.

### Is there a mechanic shortage?

Yes. BLS projects about 66,200 auto technician openings a year, TechForce puts the technician gap near 140,000 a year, and mechanics were the hardest craft to hire in AGC's 2025 survey.

### Is there a welder shortage?

The American Welding Society projects a shortage of more than 300,000 welding professionals by 2029, with more than 157,000 nearing retirement.

### Which trade is most in demand?

By annual openings in BLS projections, electricians lead the trades listed here at about 72,700 a year, followed by auto mechanics at 66,200.

### How do small businesses keep skilled workers?

Competitive pay, paid training and apprenticeships, flexible schedules and extra earnings. Apprentices who complete their program have 93% employment retention, according to apprenticeship.gov.

### Can I share recording income with my crew?

Yes. Amelia pays the business monthly and the owner sets the split; Amelia's own example is 50% worker, 10% team lead and 40% business.

## Sources

- [BLS Occupational Outlook: electricians](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/construction-and-extraction/electricians.htm)
- [BLS Occupational Outlook: automotive service technicians](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/installation-maintenance-and-repair/automotive-service-technicians-and-mechanics.htm)
- [BLS Occupational Outlook: plumbers, pipefitters and steamfitters](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/construction-and-extraction/plumbers-pipefitters-and-steamfitters.htm)
- [BLS Occupational Outlook: HVAC mechanics and installers](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/installation-maintenance-and-repair/heating-air-conditioning-and-refrigeration-mechanics-and-installers.htm)
- [BLS Occupational Outlook: welders](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/production/welders-cutters-solderers-and-brazers.htm)
- [ABC: construction must attract 349,000 workers in 2026](https://www.abc.org/News-Media/News-Releases/abc-construction-industry-must-attract-349000-workers-in-2026-despite-macroeconomic-headwinds)
- [AGC: 2025 Workforce Survey analysis (PDF)](https://www.agc.org/sites/default/files/users/user21902/2025%20Workforce%20Survey%20Analysis_V2.pdf)
- [Repairer Driven News: TechForce supply and demand report (Jun 2026)](https://www.repairerdrivennews.com/2026/06/08/techforce-more-than-73000-collision-techs-needed-by-2029-retention-partially-to-blame/)
- [KY3: welding workforce shortage (Aug 2026)](https://www.ky3.com/2026/08/11/welding-workforce-shortage-industry-leaders-warn-growing-skills-gap/)
- [American Welding Society: welding workforce data](https://www.weldingworkforcedata.com/)
- [American Farm Bureau: H-2A program use (Jan 2026)](https://www.fb.org/market-intel/h-2a-program-use-continues-to-soar)
- [Staffing Industry Analysts: ManpowerGroup 2026 US talent shortage](https://www.staffingindustry.com/news/global-daily-news/69-of-us-employers-report-difficulty-finding-talent)
- [Apprenticeship.gov (US Department of Labor)](https://www.apprenticeship.gov/)
- [Amelia Robotics: business program (checked Nov 2026)](https://ameliarobotics.com/)
- [Amelia Robotics: for robotics labs](https://ameliarobotics.com/robotics-labs)

## Related reading

- [Get paid to record your crew's work: plumbing, HVAC and electrical businesses](https://origindatapartners.com/physical-ai/plumbing-hvac-electrical)
- [Electrician shortage 2026: the numbers, the data center effect and how contractors keep crews](https://origindatapartners.com/physical-ai/electrician-shortage)
- [Auto repair shops and car washes: get paid to record your techs' work](https://origindatapartners.com/physical-ai/auto-shops)
- [Robots in construction in 2026: what is real, what it costs and what it means for your crew](https://origindatapartners.com/physical-ai/robots-in-construction)
- [HVAC business owner salary: how much HVAC company owners make](https://origindatapartners.com/physical-ai/hvac-business-owner-salary)
- [/physical-ai](https://origindatapartners.com/physical-ai)